Bitcoin remains under pressure near $86,000 as financial markets increasingly price in a 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The probability has risen amid anticipation of this week’s jobs data and heightened geopolitical tensions, including recent US strikes on Iran and a landmark oil deal between the US and Venezuela.
The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory remains uncertain, with Kevin Warsh, a former Fed chair, noting that while inflation measures have declined from their peaks, progress over recent years has been “more modest” than desired. This uncertainty is compounded by revisions to employment data, which showed a record 911,000 jobs lost in 2023, according to The Kobeissi Letter.
Analysts highlight the significance of Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls report, with expectations of a 50,000-job gain, a stark contrast to June’s 23,000-job loss. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, confirmed a deal to export 1.5 million barrels of oil daily, unlocking access to $5.4 trillion in reserves, a move described by Donald Trump on Truth Social as “the biggest oil deal in history.”
On the crypto markets, Glassnode data shows 1.05 million BTC is held by long-term investors with a cost basis between $83,000 and $86,000, suggesting a potential inflection point if Bitcoin breaks above the current resistance level. However, CryptoQuant’s onchain analytics indicate that large investors may yet sell if prices dip below $80,000, adding volatility to an already fragile market.
Geopolitical risks and Fed policy remain critical variables, with investors closely watching this week’s economic data and the Jackson Hole symposium’s potential influence on central bank decisions. The interplay between macroeconomic indicators and crypto market sentiment will likely determine Bitcoin’s next move.
Written by Kate Harper
Economics Desk
