Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has suggested that recent US Treasury actions may herald a new phase for Bitcoin, drawing parallels between current policy shifts and past interventions by former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Hayes argues that liquidity injections through Treasury operations could drive a resurgence in risk assets, including Bitcoin, by altering market dynamics.
The US Treasury, under Secretary Scott Bessent, has increased buyback operations to $4 billion per transaction, up from $2 billion previously, as part of efforts to manage yields. This follows a significant decline in the Reverse Repurchase (RRP) balance, which fell from $2.5 trillion to $100 billion between December 2023 and January 2025, alongside a $2.4 trillion liquidity injection.
Hayes’ analysis hinges on the historical impact of Treasury yield management on Bitcoin prices, citing Yellen’s policies as a precedent. He noted that Bitcoin prices rose following Yellen’s liquidity measures and anticipates a similar response to Bessent’s current approach. However, recent data shows yields have rebounded above pre-announcement levels, casting doubt on the sustainability of the effect.
The Treasury General Account (TGA), holding approximately $1 trillion, remains a key factor in potential future liquidity moves. Whether Bessent will accelerate buybacks or utilise TGA funds for further purchases remains speculative. Analysts caution that while Hayes’ expectations are based on historical patterns, the outcomes of current policies are yet to be confirmed.
Written by James Tobias
Bitcoin Desk
