Bitcoin and global risk assets surged on Monday after US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, prompting investors to reassess Federal Reserve policy expectations. The data, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, marked the third consecutive monthly decline in employment figures, with revisions to May and June payrolls further undermining growth optimism.
Bitcoin’s price rose 1.3% to $65,340 on Bitstamp, according to TradingView data, as broader equity markets also rallied. The S&P 500 opened 0.5% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed over 1%, reflecting a broader shift in investor sentiment toward risk-on assets.
Analysts noted the weaker-than-expected payrolls data had increased the likelihood of a September pause in Fed rate hikes, with the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing probabilities shifting from 0.25% to a near-certainty of no increase. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said the figures “set the tone for both the September meeting and the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole economic symposium.”
Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, highlighted the dual implications of the data, stating that “an orderly slowdown supports the liquidity relief case, while a print weak enough to raise growth concerns can still pressure risk assets.” The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory remains subject to further revisions, given the downward adjustments to May and June employment numbers.
Despite the rally, QCP Capital described the macro picture for Bitcoin as “uncertain,” noting that factors such as the Coldcard wallet exploit and corporate Bitcoin sales had limited impact on options markets. The August Jackson Hole symposium is expected to provide further clarity on Fed policy, though uncertainties persist ahead of the event.
Written by Kate Hollinsworth
Economics Desk
